PROPHETS

In early television days, a local weatherman always concluded his forecast with a cartoon figure called "the vice president in charge of looking out of the window." It was a classic juxtaposition of prediction and reality, almost metaphysical in nature. I have retained memory of that example as I consider the many speculations offered by many people regarding climate change and its assumed effects.

Recently, an article was published under the caption "Climate Change Could Exacerbate Inequality"* Since "inequality" is a hot button issue these days, my eyes perked up. The article reported that, using climate change simulation, researchers have predicted that by the year 2100 counties in the southern portion of the United States will have a greater risk of economic decline due to climate change than those in the north. Thus, they concluded, climate change will make worse wealth disparities.

The reality is that daily weather forecasts, which are based on models or simulations, frequently miss the mark on predictions of rain or snow or sunshine, for example. Likewise, longer term forecasts, several days or even a week forward, prove even less reliable or even speculative. So, how accurate are climate change predictions over the next 83 years to 2100 and resulting conclusions about economic and wealth conditions?

How are we to respond to climate change prophesies founded upon climate change simulation assumptions? Perhaps best have an umbrella and sunglasses handy and keep looking out of the window.

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*Temming,Science News,August 5, 2017, p.13

© Daniel J. Kucera 2017