Thursday, October 1, 2015

THE AUDACITY OF ASSUMPTIONS

Last month, the EPA announced its new regulation requiring a 32% reduction from 2005 levels in emissions of carbon dioxide from power plants. According to media reports, U.S. power plants produce 5% of global carbon emissions, but the current Administration assumes other countries will follow and that the U.S. reduction will counteract assumed climate change. However, media have quoted the Senate majority leader as saying that the regulation would not meaningfully affect global climate, and several states have initiated litigation challenging the regulation.

One problem with regulations can be that they may be predicated upon assumptions of fact rather than evidence of actual fact. Proposed climate change regulations may be no exception, as they appear to be based upon the following assumptions:

Assumption No.1: Global Climate Is Changing

If an assumption is repeated enough times in media or by politicians, it can take on the color of fact. Assertions that global climate is changing appear to be based upon selective temperature readings and computer modeling. While some scientists have suggested that Earth is experiencing global warming, others have pointed out that global temperatures have not changed in several years. In turn, some have proposed that somehow warmth has been sucked into the bottom of oceans, so that surface temperatures have not changed. And, so the debate goes on. But regulatory climate change proposals appear to be based upon the assumption that global climate change is fact.

Assumption No. 2: Assumed Climate Change Is Caused By Humans

Climate change is a natural and repetitive process of Earth. Climate has changed countless times and can be expected to continue to do so. History evidences such ongoing change, as continents have shifted, lush lands have become deserts, and glaciers have frozen and thawed. For example, according to a recent report, 252 million years ago, climate change caused by volcanic eruptions caused extinctions of 90% of marine species and 75% of land species. "Volcanic gases prompted environmental changes that made the planet uninhabitable for most life".*

Another report explained that during the Ice Age abrupt climate changes caused mass extinction of large native animals such as the wooly mammoths."** Even the 18th Century Christian leader Jonathan Edwards believed that the Earth experiences "continuous creation." That is, the Earth was created. has changed over the years, and is constantly changing. "Tis certain with me that the world exists anew every moment," he said.***

Nevertheless, the assumption is being made by those proposing so-called climate change regulations that climate is changing due to human activity such as emissions from power plants and other sources.

Assumption No. 3: Government Has Power To Regulate Climate Change

Regulatory proposals to control hunan activities assumed to cause climate change also assume that government has legal authority to adopt and enforce such regulations. Because such regulations can have restrictive effects on activities, this assumption can have serious adverse impacts on business and jobs. Thus, in the case of the U.S., the focus can be expected to be on Constitutional issues, relations with the states, and statutory authority of administrative agencies proposing regulations.

Assumption No. 4: Benefits of Climate Regulation Exceed Costs

A finding, and weighing, of the costs and benefits of any regulation is essential. This should be particularly applicable to regulations adopted to control such activities as air emissions when a substantial negative impact could result from such action. It apparently is assumed that U.S. carbon emission limits will cause a significant reduction in global climate change. Will that assumption become fact if other countries do not enforce similar rules? Will it be fact even if they do?

On the other hand, significant costs can result from such regulations. such as the write-off of abandoned existing infrastructure, reduction in service reliability, loss of jobs and increased costs to consumers.

Assumption No. 5: Government Can Control Climate

Perhaps the most audacious and speculative assumption is that humans, through their government, can change climate change by reversing or reducing the change. If all the emissions from all the sources ceased, and humans returned to living in caves without fire, would the climate change assumed to be now occurring cease?

It may be that too much of modern secular culture is based upon assumptions, and too little on Truth.
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*"Volcanism Convicted In Permian Die-off",
Science News, September 19, 2015, p.10

**"Climate Change Drove Ice Age Die-offs",
Science News, August 22, 2015, p.9

***Moody, The God-Centered Life (2007),
pp. 98-99



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